Adoption of Electric Vehicle in the Netherlands – A Stated Choice Experiment

In this paper, we develop a dynamic innovation diffusion framework to model adoption of full electric vehicles in the Netherlands. Three major phases of adoption are distinguished: introduction, growth and maturity. Adoption stages are further integrated into an SP study to elicit individual preferences for conventional, hybrid and full electric vehicles. We apply a nested logit model to estimate the preferences for EVs based on the generalised costs of ownership approach that includes monetary and non‐monetary costs of owing a vehicle. With positive estimates of WTP for hybrid vehicles (of about €900 on a yearly basis), our results suggest abolishment of subsidization of hybrid vehicles as they potentially crowd out EV adoption. Time costs associated with rapid charging are a substantial hindrance to EV adoption with average value of time of €63 per hour, increasing for each subsequent consumer segment from €48 to €122 per hour. Environmental costs of CO2 reductions are valued far above the market average at €160 per ton, but determine EV choices only at a later stage of adoption. Finally, towing potential is valued on average at €540 per year and it is about the same for all consumer segments throughout the adoption phases. Policy implications are discussed involving a mix of structural and monetary incentives.